500 wrestler

Some very dumb predictions that I don't fully agree with: 125: Ramos over Ayala 133: Fix over Arujau. Arujau figures out Crookham but Fix finally gets it done 141: Mendez over Bartlett. Similar to B10 finals match. 149: Lovett over Parco. Chalk. 157: Haines over Teemer. Shapiro loses a close one in the semis. 165: Carr over Messenbrink. Nothing in the B12 finals showed me that Carr is able to do beat KOT, but just a hunch. 174: Starocci over Devos. Starocci majors his way through the field. 184: Keckeisen over Truax. 197: Hidlay over Brooks. This is just a dumb, dumb prediction. But if I am right I look like a genius. Hwt: Kerkvleit over Hendrickson. Much closer than all star match

125 | Stevo Poulin 133 | Kade Moore 141 | Cole Matthews 149 | Graham Rooks 157 | Chase Saldate 165 | Caleb Fish 174 | Peyton Mocco 184 | Ryder Rogotzke 197 | Luke Surber 285 | Dayton Pitzer

Yes KOT was solid in his answers. I always appreciate when the winner gives a shout out to their opponent. Unfortunately due to time constraints and conflicts I just got through Big 10s today. Then watched selected big12 matches, starting at 165. And that's the only interview Big12 interview I had time to watch. We'll see what the NCCA champion interviews bring. Still waiting for something that rivals Sammy Brooks from his Big 10 championship.

True. But prepared/poised respondents will find a way to answer a difficult question, not look like a deer in the headlights. Not saying it is easy. And remember, these are the official rankings. I'm just reporting them.

Kerk's saving grace was the inherent humility in his religiosity. That aside, He was probably the worst. But Davis was as ill-prepared as Nuke LaLoosh before Crash taught him how to use cliches.

Davis? He didn't show any humility at all. Talked about all of the 5-6 year guys can't handle him.

I believe post-match interview performances are a factor in NCAA seedings, so here are the official rankings. First, an explanation of the criteria: Charisma/Poise (1-5): is the wrestler comfortable, and can they communicate well? Gratitude (1-5): Did they express gratitude? Admittedly this depends somewhat on the questions asked. Emotion (1-5): How much emotion do they express? Any emotion (except for boredom, Greg) Humility (1-5): How humble are they? Negative points for arrogance (I'm talking to you Jesse) I also deduct a point for each Cliche, for example: I trust in my training We have the best coaching staff All glory to god I have a great support system I just have to wrestle through positions Here are the final, purely objective rankings: Wrestler Charisma Gratitude Emotion Humility Cliché Score Ruth 5 5 3 5 0 18 Lovett 5 3 5 4 0 17 Haines 4 4 5 5 -1 17 Mesenbrink 5 3 3 5 -1 15 Shawver 4 3 4 4 -1 14 Brooks 2 4 2 5 -2 11 Salazar 3 1 4 2 -3 7 Mendez 3 1 3 1 -2 6 Kerkvliet 1 1 1 5 -2 6 Davis 1 1 2 1 0 5 Congratulations to Edmond Ruth for being the champion of champions (I didn't even count his pre-hand raise dancing), and good effort from Lovett and Haines. On the flip side, Braeden Davis needs some works.

I’d put Sammy Sasso at 6. Even before stellar performance at US open. And his trajectory seems up as opposed to Lewis and Fix.

What a strong ending to his career (I think he’s done) from 10 seed to 3rd in a tough 125. Last 3 years 2nd, 6th, 3rd. Not so long ago is seemed that many were calling for Figueroa to take his spot. Glad ASU stuck with him, he earned their loyalty. Figs is good but no way he would have done better than Courtney did at NCAAs this year.

What odds would you have taken for neither Lee nor RBY take 1st? Never saw that happening.

He already beat Noto and Ventresca this year so R12 sounds reasonable. Of course no guarantees. Heard on Flo podcast that if Sasso beat Yanni then tOSU passes Cornell. So it was close and maybe that makes the difference.

Probably bad form to create new topic instead of adding to old, oh well... First contest: AA Overachievers Biggest individual scorers: 27 seed Eddie Ventresca & 28 seed Killian Cardinale (selected by many) with 20 points each. There were no other double-digit scorers. Weights with most overachievers: 125 and 141 (6). 141 had 4 double-digit seeds AA. Weight with fewest overachiever: 174 (2). 157 had 3 but only one seeded lower than 8 – Returning AA and 9 seed Will Lewan. Top 3 Most Points: 500 Wrestler (24), Dirtbea Frou (23), hld0017 (13) Second contest: Top 8 seed non-AA Biggest individual scorer (highest seed to not AA): 141 #3 Cole Matthews, 5 points ☹, selected by DiverDownBrian and hld0017 Weight with most top 8 non-AA: 141 (4) Weight with fewest top 8 non- AA: 133, 157, 174 (1). Top 2 Most Points: Tie: 500 Wrestler and hld0017 (13), DiverDownBrian (11) Third contest: First Round Upsets Biggest individual scorer: 29 seed Caleb Fish with 13 points, selected by 500 Wrestler Weight with most first round upsets: 125 with 6; also 184 with 5 Weight with fewest first round updates: 197 with zero (!); also Hwt with only one, 17 seed Taye Gahadiali Top 2 Most points: Tie 500 Wrestler and Major Kong (27), Dirtbea Frou (25) Top five point winners: 500 Wrestler: 64 (I’d like to thank Dylan D’Emilio, Shane Van Ness, Killian Cardinale, and Caleb Fish who earned me 43 of my points) DirtBea Frou: 53 Hld0017: 45 DoverDownBrian: 41 Major Kong: 39 It’s nice to win something since I had Duke winning in my NCAA basketball pool (my wife went there) Thanks to those who participated. I hope to do this next year. I may eliminate 2nd contest as in retrospect I don’t like the idea of predicting someone not doing well. Seems like bad juju.

I thought Nino looked undersized at 197. This photo seems to say otherwise.

Where was Austin O’Conner? oops didn’t notice question was already asked

Seems to me far too many people lost the thread of this thread. The original post was dead on. I cringed when I heard Brooks say that, it was very uncool. Just finished watching the late this morning today so well behind the curve here. I'm not a religious person, but as far as I'm concerned the winner can thank whoever/whatever they want, and make a shout out to their faith. Obviously many of these athletes believe that their faith is a huge part of their success. Who am I to question that. I suspect faith helps you put things in perspective and helps you deal better with all the highs and lows. But that is not what this post is about. It's about Brooks disparaging the Muslim faith, plain and simple. One more thing: For most religions (there may be exceptions), if you are very religious then I think it's safe to say that you think your religion is the one truth and followers of all other faiths are just plain wrong. Otherwise, it's just a matter of choice, right? And if it's a matter of choice, it can't be the only truth. So I would speculate that most very religious people in their hearts agree with what Brooks said. But it's an unwritten rule that in a society such as ours that purportedly welcomes all religions, you just don't say things like that. Brooks is a young man, but old enough to know better.

And the genetics!

How about his immediate post match demeanor. Cold, cold stare at RBY and not a hint of celebration. Not surprised to be there. That is a bad man.

As far as I can tell these are the only bracket changes: 133: #11 Conner McGonagle (Lehigh) is out, everyone 33-12 went up one, Ethan Oakley (Appalachian State) was added as 33 149: #9 Jonathan Millner (Appalachian State) is out, everyone 33-10 sent up one, Don Demas (Cal Ploy) was added as 33. Lowest seed ever for a former AA? Updated brackets are on here on Track Wrestling. As for the contest I created, I have updated picks to reflect the changes above. You can still enter this contest here. There are 3 ways to play, you can do just 1 or all 3: AA Overachiever Top seed (1-8) Underachiever First Round Upset This takes a few minutes to fill out. The contests to fill out the full bracket or pick the top 8 for all 10 weights is too much for me, and last I checked they have not updated the brackets so that makes it a bit tricky.

Reminder to consider this conteet: https://forms.gle/qNWvZgZrFYiUrct69. I have made a change so that you can now enter 1, 2, or all 3 contests. With bracket change at 133 and 149 (I think), hopefully all who have entered have saved a link to update their brackets. If not, lmk and I'll email you with a personalized link. Or based on time stamp of your entry I can adjust picks accordingly based on final brackets. Thought I'd share my thoughts on on of my AA overachiever picks: At 197, for me it was between Dean (9 seed) or Warner (15 seed). Both are 3 time AAs (Dean 7, 2, 1; Warner 7,4,2 I think). Warner has more potential return because he is a bit lower seed, but he has looked off this year. And honestly I can't see Dean not placing top 8, and I could easily see him in the 1-4 range. So for me, safe money goes on Dean. For high seed overachiever, at 125 Poulin and Smith seem like high seeds that could easily finish off of the podium. Others who have entered seem to agree.

Apologies for nerding out here... if we were to assume my 87/75 chances of Carr and O'Toole each getting to the final were correct (which would be a big mistake), then the probabilities of the 4 options are: Carr and O'Toole in finals: .85*.75 = 64% Carr and someone else: .85 * (1-.75) = 21% O'Toole and Someone else: (1-.85) * .75 = 11% Two other people: (1-.85) * (1-.75) = 4% If I was building my original 55/35 numbers from the above, I would then assign likelihood of Carr or O'Toole winning in each of the first 3 scenarios above. But of course I did not do that, I just guessed the numbers. I could back into those numbers pretty easily though, but that that point I'm just assigning percentages to support my original numbers. What do I know, it will probably be Hamiti over Ramirez...

Your question makes me realize my percentages were incomplete. Here is some more info, for example: 165: Carr (55%) / O'Toole (35%) / 10% I give Carr a 55% chance to win it all. I expect him to meet O'Toole in the final, and I give O'Toole a 35% chance to win it all. I give the rest of the field 10% chance to win it all. You didn't ask this, but If I were to break it down further, in this case I would give Carr about an 85% chance to make the finals (since I am pulling these numbers out of my ass I might as will do it with confidence) and O'Toole a 75% chance to get to the finals. In retrospect my maybe 10% was too high for the rest of the field, but there are a lot of good wrestlers at that weight and who knows what will happen. Note: all of my finalists were on opposite sides of the bracket as they should be. It would be possible (but not at all likely) for my 2 most likely winners to come from the same side of the bracket. As far as what you asked (confidence that another wrestler makes the finals), that could be derived from the last 2 percentages that I provided (85 and 75) . But there are really 3 cases: 1. Carr and someone else, 2. O' Toole and someone else, and 3. two other finalists. The math is not too hard (was a math major decades ago) but I'll leave that to someone else

Key: 1st (% Confidence they will win) / 2nd (% Confidence that they willwin) / (% confidence that someone else in the field wins, with 0 meaning < 1%): 125: Lee (95) / Glory (5%) / 0% 133: RBY (65%) / FIx (30%) / 5% 141: Alirez (40%) / Woods (35%) / 25% 149: Yanni (90%) / Sasso (5%) / 5% 157: AOC (45%) / Robb (25%) / 30% 165: Carr (55%) / O'Toole (35%) / 10% 174: Starocci (90%) / Lewis (10%) / 0% 184: Brooks (75%) / Keckeisen (15%) / 10% 197: Bonaccorsi (25%) / Elam (20%) / 55% Hvy: Parris (45%) / Kerk (30%) / 25%

I got the idea for this contest from the Dark Horse thread. I then came up with a couple of other questions and built a google form and a scoring system around this: https://forms.gle/qNWvZgZrFYiUrct69 There are three parts of this competition; you select a wrestler for each weight. Here are the three parts: AA Overachievers: Select wrestlers that you think will AA and outperform their seed. Points awarded = seed - AA placement. Valid values 2-32. No points awarded if wrestler does not AA. Non-AA Underachievers: Pick top 8 seeded wrestlers that you don't think will AA. Points awarded = 9 - seed. Valid values 1-8. No points awarded if wrestler AAs. First Round Upset: Pick a first round upset. Points awarded = seed - 16. Valid values 17-32 (pigtail matches ignored). No points awarded if wrestler loses first round match. To provide real-life examples, these would have been the highest individual scorers across all weight last year: AA Overachiever: 197 Gavin Hoffman, 21 seed/6th place = 15 points. Non-AA Underachiever: 141 Jayden Eierman, 2 seed = 7 points. First Round Upset: 174 Tyler Eischens, 26 seed= 10 points. Remember the objective here is not pick the highest scorer at each weight but rather to maximize your total points. For example, for AA Overachiever you may think a 7 for a particular weight is likely the make the finals, which would earn you 5 or 6 points. Whereas picking a 25 seed to AA would be much less likely, although the upside would be higher (17 points if they came in 8th). So it come down to risk/reward. A few more notes: I am asking for your email, but this is only so that you can get your responses emailed to you which also gives you the opportunity to change your picks right until the tournament starts. If you don’t’ want to provide your email just put in a dummy email. I am asking for your forum member name so I can announce the winners. But this can be filled out by someone who doesn't have a member name, they would just need to enter a name for this contest. Rather than selecting wrestlers by name you have to select by seed at each weight. This saved me a lot of time in building the form and will make it easy to compile results. I hope some of you enjoy this. I don’t know if I will get zero of you to fill it out, or 10, or more. But it only took me about an hour to build and I think it will kind of fun and give some additional things to root for.

We called the move a head lever in NJ in the 80s. Really only works for a turn against seriously overmatched opponents. As for post-match interviews - the gold standard interviewee was Sammy Brooks talking about his mullet. I never tire of watching that. I also liked the honesty of Real Wood's answer. I get a bit tired of the same answers: 'I trust my coaches. I have a great support system. All glory to god.' I don't mean to knock anyone's religiosity but how about some real talk. Yanni mentioning having some nuts and Spencer's 'excuses are for wusses' were real, if a little harsh. As for the interview questions: I think they really missed an opportunity to ask Sasso about wearing his backpack to the mat. That was unusual enough that it warranted a question. One last thing about Real Woods: I loved the mutual respect and sportsmanship that Woods and Hardy showed after their match. A real testament to both of their characters.

All good choices. Max Murin for sure. Someone from Purdue - I’ll say Kendall Coleman. Silas Allred. A week ago I would have said Malik Heinselman. In his stead, I’m going with another undersized 125 - Stevo Poulin. Looked good in Big 12 finals.